Design and validation of novel methods for long-term road traffic forecasting

132 p.Road traffic management is a critical aspect for the design and planning of complex urban transport networks for which vehicle flow forecasting is an essential component. As a testimony of its paramount relevance in transport planning and logistics, thousands of scientific research works have covered the traffic forecasting topic during the last 50 years. In the beginning most approaches relied on autoregressive models and other analysis methods suited for time series data. During the last two decades, the development of new technology, platforms and techniques for massive data processing under the Big Data umbrella, the availability of data from multiple sources fostered by the Open Data philosophy and an ever-growing need of decision makers for accurate traffic predictions have shifted the spotlight to data-driven procedures. Even in this convenient context, with abundance of open data to experiment and advanced techniques to exploit them, most predictive models reported in literature aim for shortterm forecasts, and their performance degrades when the prediction horizon is increased. Long-termforecasting strategies are more scarce, and commonly based on the detection and assignment to patterns. These approaches can perform reasonably well unless an unexpected event provokes non predictable changes, or if the allocation to a pattern is inaccurate.The main core of the work in this Thesis has revolved around datadriven traffic forecasting, ultimately pursuing long-term forecasts. This has broadly entailed a deep analysis and understanding of the state of the art, and dealing with incompleteness of data, among other lesser issues. Besides, the second part of this dissertation presents an application outlook of the developed techniques, providing methods and unexpected insights of the local impact of traffic in pollution. The obtained results reveal that the impact of vehicular emissions on the pollution levels is overshadowe

Design and validation of novel methods for long-term road traffic forecasting

132 p.Road traffic management is a critical aspect for the design and planning of complex urban transport networks for which vehicle flow forecasting is an essential component. As a testimony of its paramount relevance in transport planning and logistics, thousands of scientific research works have covered the traffic forecasting topic during the last 50 years. In the beginning most approaches relied on autoregressive models and other analysis methods suited for time series data. During the last two decades, the development of new technology, platforms and techniques for massive data processing under the Big Data umbrella, the availability of data from multiple sources fostered by the Open Data philosophy and an ever-growing need of decision makers for accurate traffic predictions have shifted the spotlight to data-driven procedures. Even in this convenient context, with abundance of open data to experiment and advanced techniques to exploit them, most predictive models reported in literature aim for shortterm forecasts, and their performance degrades when the prediction horizon is increased. Long-termforecasting strategies are more scarce, and commonly based on the detection and assignment to patterns. These approaches can perform reasonably well unless an unexpected event provokes non predictable changes, or if the allocation to a pattern is inaccurate.The main core of the work in this Thesis has revolved around datadriven traffic forecasting, ultimately pursuing long-term forecasts. This has broadly entailed a deep analysis and understanding of the state of the art, and dealing with incompleteness of data, among other lesser issues. Besides, the second part of this dissertation presents an application outlook of the developed techniques, providing methods and unexpected insights of the local impact of traffic in pollution. The obtained results reveal that the impact of vehicular emissions on the pollution levels is overshadowe

A Comparison of Modelling Approaches for the Long-term Estimation of Origin Destination Matrices in Bike Sharing Systems

Micro-mobility services have gained popularity in the last years, becoming a relevant part of the transportation network in a plethora of cities. This has given rise to a fruitful research area, covering from the impact and relationships of these transportation modes with preexisting ones to the different ways for estimating the demand of such services in order to guarantee the quality of service. Within this domain, docked bike sharing systems constitute an interesting surrogate for understanding the mobility of the whole city, as origin-destination matrices can be obtained straightforward from the information available at the docking stations. This work elaborates on the characterization of such origin-destination matrices, providing an essential set of insights on how to estimate their behavior in the long-term. To do so, the main non-mobility features that affect mobility are studied and used to train different machine learning algorithms to produce viable mobility patterns. The case study performed over real data captured by the bike sharing system of Bilbao (Spain) reveals that, by virtue of a properly selected set of features and the adoption of specialized modeling algorithms, reliable long-term estimations of such origin-destination matrices can be effectively achieved

On the imputation of missing data for road traffic forecasting: New insights and novel techniques

Vehicle flow forecasting is of crucial importance for the management of road traffic in complex urban networks, as well as a useful input for route planning algorithms. In general traffic predictive models rely on data gathered by different types of sensors placed on roads, which occasionally produce faulty readings due to several causes, such as malfunctioning hardware or transmission errors. Filling in those gaps is relevant for constructing accurate forecasting models, a task which is engaged by diverse strategies, from a simple null value imputation to complex spatio-temporal context imputation models. This work elaborates on two machine learning approaches to update missing data with no gap length restrictions: a spatial context sensing model based on the information provided by surrounding sensors, and an automated clustering analysis tool that seeks optimal pattern clusters in order to impute values. Their performance is assessed and compared to other common techniques and different missing data generation models over real data captured from the city of Madrid (Spain). The newly presented methods are found to be fairly superior when portions of missing data are large or very abundant, as occurs in most practical cases.This work has been supported by the Basque Government through the ELKARTEK program (Ref. KK-2015/0000080 and the BID3ABI project), as well as by the H2020 programme of the European Commission (Grant No. 691735)

Evolving Spiking Neural Networks for online learning over drifting data streams

Nowadays huge volumes of data are produced in the form of fast streams, which are further affected by non-stationary phenomena. The resulting lack of stationarity in the distribution of the produced data calls for efficient and scalable algorithms for online analysis capable of adapting to such changes (concept drift). The online learning field has lately turned its focus on this challenging scenario, by designing incremental learning algorithms that avoid becoming obsolete after a concept drift occurs. Despite the noted activity in the literature, a need for new efficient and scalable algorithms that adapt to the drift still prevails as a research topic deserving further effort. Surprisingly, Spiking Neural Networks, one of the major exponents of the third generation of artificial neural networks, have not been thoroughly studied as an online learning approach, even though they are naturally suited to easily and quickly adapting to changing environments. This work covers this research gap by adapting Spiking Neural Networks to meet the processing requirements that online learning scenarios impose. In particular the work focuses on limiting the size of the neuron repository and making the most of this limited size by resorting to data reduction techniques. Experiments with synthetic and real data sets are discussed, leading to the empirically validated assertion that, by virtue of a tailored exploitation of the neuron repository, Spiking Neural Networks adapt better to drifts, obtaining higher accuracy scores than naive versions of Spiking Neural Networks for online learning environments.This work was supported by the EU project Pacific AtlanticNetwork for Technical Higher Education and Research—PANTHER(grant number 2013-5659/004-001 EMA2)

From Data to Actions in Intelligent Transportation Systems: A Prescription of Functional Requirements for Model Actionability

Advances in Data Science permeate every field of Transportation Science and Engineering, resulting in developments in the transportation sector that are data-driven. Nowadays, Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) could be arguably approached as a “story” intensively producing and consuming large amounts of data. A diversity of sensing devices densely spread over the infrastructure, vehicles or the travelers’ personal devices act as sources of data flows that are eventually fed into software running on automatic devices, actuators or control systems producing, in turn, complex information flows among users, traffic managers, data analysts, traffic modeling scientists, etc. These information flows provide enormous opportunities to improve model development and decision-making. This work aims to describe how data, coming from diverse ITS sources, can be used to learn and adapt data-driven models for efficiently operating ITS assets, systems and processes; in other words, for data-based models to fully become actionable. Grounded in this described data modeling pipeline for ITS, we define the characteristics, engineering requisites and challenges intrinsic to its three compounding stages, namely, data fusion, adaptive learning and model evaluation. We deliberately generalize model learning to be adaptive, since, in the core of our paper is the firm conviction that most learners will have to adapt to the ever-changing phenomenon scenario underlying the majority of ITS applications. Finally, we provide a prospect of current research lines within Data Science that can bring notable advances to data-based ITS modeling, which will eventually bridge the gap towards the practicality and actionability of such models.This work was supported in part by the Basque Government for its funding support through the EMAITEK program (3KIA, ref. KK-2020/00049). It has also received funding support from the Consolidated Research Group MATHMODE (IT1294-19) granted by the Department of Education of the Basque Government